STEEP Forces

Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic and Political

Political

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Security

Are you sure you are safe?

Global public health security is defined as the activities required, both proactive and reactive, to minimize the danger and impact of acute public health events that endanger people's health across geographical regions and international boundaries.
Population growth, rapid urbanization, environmental degradation, and the misuse of antimicrobials are disrupting the equilibrium of the microbial world. New diseases, like COVID-19, are emerging at unprecedented rates disrupting people's health and causing social and economic impacts. Billions of passengers travel on airplanes each year, increasing the opportunities for the rapid international spread of infectious agents and their vectors.

What do we know?

Security for information technology (IT) refers to the methods, tools and personnel used to defend an organization's digital assets. The goal of IT security is to protect these assets, devices and services from being disrupted, stolen or exploited by unauthorized users, otherwise known as threat actors. These threats can be external or internal and malicious or accidental in both origin and nature. Information security is just one of the several kinds of security.

What do we not know?

When the pandemic led millions of employees nationwide to work remotely, data privacy and protection took center stage. Unfortunately, remote devices are the most vulnerable to attacks from cybercriminals, making endpoint devices such as desktops, laptops, servers and more the most prominent targets. Cybercriminals often use these devices as an entry point to access business networks, steal company data, attack software vulnerabilities and hold pertinent information hostage. While pandemic restrictions have lifted, many organizations have permanently adopted a hybrid work model, and device and cloud security remain a vital component of business. Can endpoint security help minimize risk and lower the threat of cyberattack against remote workers?

Inspiring Examples

Healthcare data security guarantees the protection of this data against accidental deletion. The protection guarantee also applies to illegal breach in healthcare information security, including unlawful destruction or access to personal data.
Differential privacy is stored in digital files, databases, fingerprint records, and DNA samples. Online consultation with a doctor also contains the patient's medical data. The information may also be transferred to healthcare authorities and government bodies, including the police or a court. Information in medical records directly relates to a person's private life and health. Such medical information has a personal character and is considered a particular category of personal data.

References

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Collapse of Democracy

End of freedoms?

The latest political climate creates vulnerabilities for all types of governments, from established liberal democracies to closed authoritarian systems. Adaptability and performance are likely to be key factors in the relative rise and fall of democratic and authoritarian governance during the next 20 years.
Governments that harness new opportunities, adapt to rising pressures, manage growing social fragmentation, and deliver security and economic prosperity for their populations will preserve or strengthen their legitimacy.

What do we know?

The challenges governments face suggest there is a high risk that an ongoing trend in erosion of democratic governance will continue during at least the next decade and perhaps longer. This trend has been widespread—seen in established, wealthy, liberal democracies as well as less mature partial democracies. Key democratic traits, including freedom of expression and the press, judicial independence, and protections for minorities, are deteriorating globally with countries sliding in the direction of greater authoritarianism.

What do we not know?

The retreat of democracies is troubling enough. Yet at the same time, the world's leading autocracies, China and Russia, have seized the opportunity not only to step up internal repression but also to export their malign influence to other countries, which are increasingly copying their behavior and adopting their disdain for democracy. The spread of antidemocratic practices around the world is not merely a setback for fundamental freedoms. It poses economic and security risks.
Will the future political scenario be primarily democratic?

Inspiring Examples

Authoritarian actors grew bolder during 2020 as major democracies turned inward, contributing to the 15th consecutive year of decline in global freedom, according to Freedom in the World 2021, the annual country-by-country assessment of political rights and civil liberties released today by Freedom House.

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Welfare

Is 21st century the end of welfare?

The term welfare refers to a range of government programs that provide financial or other aid to individuals or groups who cannot support themselves. Welfare programs are typically funded by taxpayers and allow people to cope with financial stress during rough periods of their lives.
In most cases, people who use welfare will receive a biweekly or monthly payment. The goals of welfare vary as it looks to promote the pursuit of work, education, or, in some instances, a better standard of living.

What do we know?

Social services are a fundamental part of social protection systems across the European Union and play a key role in improving people's lives. Against the diverse challenges facing Europe such as an ageing population, the war in Ukraine and the cost-of-living crisis, it is more important than ever to ensure social services are a priority investment; and for well-functioning, robust and responsive legislation and actions that allow access to social protection systems that are modern and sustainable in protecting people in vulnerable situations.

What do we not know?

Accounts of the future of the welfare state are often presented in crisis terms. Some commentators identify globalization as a force that has already led to a major retreat by the state and is likely to lead to further downsizing of the public sector. Others see the future burden of an aging population as creating huge public expenditure pressures that can be countered only by increased parsimony in most areas of spending. Although both crisis scenarios contain elements of truth, analysis of recent public expenditure trends shows that both are substantially exaggerated as general representations of likely developments over the next two or three decades.

Inspiring Examples

Recent news of the United Kingdom's debt and welfare cost situation, which is expected to surge by £50 billion or $60.7 billion, according to Financial Times. The inflation and impending recession could further worsen the situation, leading to high interest rates and subsequent lesser tax revenue. The welfare payments are expected to rise by £23 billion annually until the next election.

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(Trans)National Identities

Does identity still exist?

In some countries, the contestation among identities is challenging conceptions of national identity, which historically have been a source of state cohesion and national purpose. Nationalism overall has gained strength, but in some cases, exclusionary forms of nationalism are gaining prominence and weakening the ideals of civic nationalism.
Societies that are ethnically and culturally different may be more susceptible to challenge. Exclusionary forms of nationalism have been ascendant in many regions, especially those experiencing demographic changes, with slow or stagnant economic growth and people who fear losing special status.

What do we know?

Nowadays, globalization is connected with the emergence and reconstruction of new identities. For instance, the migration process implies the generation of new forms of identity, questioning the traditional homogeneous and static notions of identity. In this regard, the term "transnational identity" or "bicultural identity" has been suggested for these people that live in between two cultural frameworks and has to establish a dialogue between the country of origin ("there") and the host country ("here").

What do we not know?

All aspects of migrants' lives are no longer necessarily related to the country where they settle down. In the 21st century, the significance of both physical and man-made borders have diminished for certain groups of migrants as an increasing number of people belong to more than one community. By virtue of their everyday practices, these migrants are involved in relations and networks that span two or more national states. In many cases, they have a desire to settle down in the receiving country while feeling a need to preserve the strong ties to the country of origin.

Inspiring Examples

The migrant crisis in 2015 also prompted a surge in nationalist forces in several other European countries, including France, Germany, and the Netherlands, where majority populations fear cultural change and economic competition.
Some government regimes seek to use religious and ethnic themes in other countries to mobilize foreign popular support for their foreign policy objectives.

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Information and Connection

More connected, more informed...more aware?

The exponential growth of the hyperconnected information environment is likely to strengthen and further complicate identity allegiance and societal dynamics.
Social media make it easier for people to affiliate with others around the world who share common characteristics, views, and beliefs. Moreover, social media can create echo chambers of like-minded users who share information that confirms their existing worldviews and limits their understanding of alternative perspectives.

What do we know?

All around the world, the internet continues to transform how we connect with others, organize the flow of things, and share information. With its growing influence on individual consumers and large economies alike, the internet has become a vital part of our day-to-day lives. In 2023, the number of internet users worldwide stood at 5.18 billion, which means that around two thirds of the global population is currently connected to the world wide web.

What do we not know?

IoT continues to face major risks related to security, privacy, sustainability, accessibility, and interoperability, but investors' confidence in the economic value of these technologies remains strong. Although venture capital funding in IoT declined to $12 billion in 2020 compared to $20 billion the previous year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it has bounced back. While this growth in investment opens new opportunities to expedite and scale IoT solutions in the public interest, it also increases the importance of accelerating governance efforts to mitigate the risks and reduce the possible harms to society, while maximizing the positive impacts.
How will these risks be reduced?

Inspiring Examples

Smaller, cheaper, electronic processors and sensors have made it easier to connect almost anything to the Internet, and "smart" devices are increasingly being used to gather, communicate, and process information that has never been captured before.
Other wearable devices include baby clothes that monitor respiration, temperature, and activity level, and football helmets that detect and analyze impacts and notify medical staff if needed. The rapid emergence of these and other connected devices brings the promise of new benefits, but also presents potential challenges in areas like information security and privacy.

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Geopolitical Competition

How will the future (dis)order be?

Geopolitics involves three qualities. First, it is concerned with questions of influence and power over space and territory. Second, it uses geographical frames to make sense of world affairs. Third, geopolitics is future-oriented. It offers insights into the likely behavior of states because their interests are fundamentally unchanging.

What do we know?

States need to secure resources, protect their territory including borderlands, and manage their populations. Two fundamental ways of understanding the term geopolitics are offered: classical geopolitics that focuses on the interrelationship between the territorial interests and power of the state and geographical environments, and critical geopolitics, which tends to focus more on the role of discourse and ideology.

What do we not know?

In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, European powers continued in what had become a long tradition of building and projecting military force to compete over access to and control of territory, trade, and resources. However, over the past eight decades, a remarkable decline in the number of European states building and projecting military power has occurred. One might contrast this development with the recent trend in Asia, where the diffusion of economic and military power has resulted in a number of states rapidly modernizing their naval, air, and expeditionary warfare capabilities.
Why is it that most European states have purposefully decreased their ability to project power, while states in Asia are now increasing these capabilities?

Inspiring Examples

China is increasingly moving into new spaces and domains of geopolitical competition, like the Arctic, which is also of considerable geostrategic interest to the EU.
The geopolitical zeitgeist has focused analysis on government actions and tactics, and it has tilted much analysis of international relations back toward state-oriented concepts and frameworks. While analysts give some attention to the role of armed nonstate actors in geopolitical struggles, the broader role of civic actors in contemporary geopolitics is underanalysed.

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Nuclear Paths

A new use of nuclear energy?

Nuclear proliferation and potentially nuclear use are more likely in this competitive geopolitical environment. Advances in technology and diversification of delivery systems, arms control uncertainties, and spread of knowledge and skills related to nuclear technology add to the higher risk.

What do we know?

Nuclear medicine can show how the organs or tissues are functioning. For most diagnostic procedures, a tracer, which contains the radioactive material, is injected, swallowed, or inhaled. Then the healthcare provider or radiologist uses a radiation detector to see how much of the tracer is absorbed or how it reacts in the organ or tissue. This will give the provider information about how well it is functioning. Common uses of nuclear medicine for diagnosis include scans of the heart, lung, kidneys, gallbladder, and thyroid.

What do we not know?

The use of radiation therapy (radiotherapy) can cure many different types of cancer, as well as other conditions, such as Graves' disease (the most common cause of hyperthyroidism). In the case of cancer, most cancerous growths are sensitive to radiation.
There are numerous different treatment options, either with external or internal radiation, with the aim to control or eliminate the cancer by irradiating the area containing it. One example is brachytherapy, where small radiation sources are placed inside the body, either in or nearby the area that requires treatment. Radiation can also be used as a non-invasive alternative to brain surgery.
Will there be new uses of nuclear technology for health?

Inspiring Examples

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted by world leaders in 2015 include a commitment to "ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages." Nuclear science can make a significant contribution to the achievement of this goal. The IAEA is committed to helping its Member States use nuclear science and technology to reduce the number of deaths from non-communicable diseases by one third by 2030, a key SDG target.

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Global Commons

A new era for the relevance of nature?

Human well-being and the global economy depend entirely on a stable, resilient planet with two permanent ice caps, clean-flowing rivers, a cloak of forests, reliable weather, and a diverse abundance of life.
These tightly woven, interconnected Earth-systems - our global commons - which are vital for all life and civilization, are in crisis. We have pushed the global commons to breaking point, and the impacts are already hitting hard: failed harvests, unhealthy air, poisoned rivers, deadly heat, and extreme wildfires and floods.

What do we know?

There are currently two definitions of the global commons: One is based in geopolitics. In this definition the global commons are areas - and their potential economic resources - that lie beyond national jurisdiction: the atmosphere, the high seas, Antarctica and outer space. The second definition has its roots more in economics than geopolitics and relates to how shared resources can be overused by some at the expense of others, regardless of national jurisdiction. Both definitions are relevant to the Global Commons Alliance, but we are more concerned with this second definition.

What do we not know?

TTwo prominent concepts shape the regulatory discourse: the tragedy of the commons and the common heritage of mankind. The former is the idea that common resources are over-exploited in the absence of regulation while common concerns remain unaddressed. The latter reflects the idea that some resources belong to us all, including our future generations, and we cannot be denied rights or responsibilities in relation to them.
What will the commons for future generations be?

Inspiring Examples

It is admitted that the concept of 'global commons' is a living concept and can accommodate, over time, other commons at the international level, such as biodiversity and generic resources. It is argued that the ecosystems, biomes, and processes that regulate the stability and resilience of the Earth system (carbon cycle) are also global commons.
In the maritime domain, it is generally recognized that in addition to the high seas and Antarctica, the international seabed is also a visible global commons. The situation of global marine commons is not that optimistic in that fishery resources continue to deplete, marine biodiversity continues to reduce, and plastic waste in the oceans continues to increase.

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The Rise of Ethical Questions

Will science ask itself why?

Ethical questions related to health, healthcare, and public health cover topics as different as moral issues around reproduction, state obligations in the provision of healthcare services, and appropriate measures to control infectious disease.
Scholars and healthcare professionals have debated ethical questions related to health and healthcare since the earliest days of medicine. Recent formal efforts to articulate international standards of ethics applicable to health and healthcare can be traced to the Nuremberg trials of 1947, during which the horrors of Nazi medical experiments came to light.

What do we know?

With the rise of telemedicine, wearable healthcare, and the greater leverage of 'big data' for precision medicine, various challenges present themselves to organizations, physicians, and patients. Beyond the practical, financial, and clinical considerations, we must not ignore the ethical imperative for fair and just applications to improve the field of healthcare for all.
Given the increasing personalization of medicine and the role technology will play at the interface of healthcare delivery, a thorough understanding of the challenges presented is critical for future physicians who will navigate a novel environment.

What do we not know?

The use of AI to assist clinicians in the future could change clinical decision-making and, if adopted, create new stakeholder dynamics. The future scenario of employing AI to help clinicians could revolutionize clinical decision-making and, if embraced, create a new healthcare paradigm. Clinicians (including doctors, nurses, and other health professionals) have a stake in the safe roll-out of new technologies in the clinical setting.
So, who will be the clinicians of next decades?

Inspiring Examples

We can govern our technologies by laws, regulations, and other agreements. Some fundamentally ethical questions that we should be asking of new technologies include:
What should we be doing with these powers now that we have developed them?
What are we trying to achieve?
How can this technology help or harm people?
What does a good, fully human life look like?
As we try to navigate this new space, we must evaluate what is right and what is wrong, what is good and what is evil.

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States Like Silos

Will silos be the new configuration?

Government organizational silos have been blamed for a multitude of sins. Yet they have proven to be resilient, principally because they provide opportunities for centralized government, political control over the bureaucracy, and the prospect of rapid decision-making, effective implementation, and support for economic development.
But silos often also suffer from serious dysfunctions that impede smooth progress from decision to action. Their relationships with other governments, private, and third-sector organizations frequently reflect inadequate horizontal coordination, a failure to communicate and share information, and disputes over funding and jurisdictional responsibilities.

What do we know?

In Europe, until the advent of new public management, a large centralized government was typical of most countries. Even in federal systems, the national government did not decentralize the provision of goods and services until the latter decades of the 20th century.
New public management presents an alternative of delivering services closer to the user. It sometimes came at the cost of considerable variations in the quality of provision and a loss of political control, leading to some rollback of the reforms, reaggregation, and a return to greater centralization.

What do we not know?

To maintain domestic stability in this world, states adopt mixed political models combining elements of democracy and authoritarianism, increasing surveillance and potentially repression. Many states turn to exclusionary forms of nationalism to unify majority populations against perceived foreign enemies.
International organizations and collective action tackle climate change, healthcare disparities, and poverty falter. Countries independently adapt to catastrophic impacts, significantly increasing the incentive for risky solutions. Is this the most correct future scenario?

Inspiring Examples

In a foresight scenario, in 2040, the world is fragmented into several economic and security blocks of varying size and strength, centered on the United States, China, the European Union, Russia, and a few regional powers, and focused on self-sufficiency, resiliency, and defense.
Information flows within separate cyber-sovereign enclaves, supply chains are reoriented, and international trade is disrupted. Vulnerable developing countries are caught in the middle with some on the verge of becoming failed states. Global problems, notably climate change, are spottily addressed, if at all.