STEEP Forces

Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic and Political

Environmental

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Pandemics

Whom we shall learn to live with?

A pandemic is a disease outbreak that spreads across countries or continents. It affects more people and takes more lives than an epidemic. The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic when it became clear that the illness was severe and that it was spreading quickly over a wide area. The number of lives lost in a pandemic depends on: how many people are infected; how severe is the disease that the virus causes (its virulence); how vulnerable certain groups of people are; and prevention efforts and how effective they are.

What do we know?

Pandemics can cause significant, widespread increases in morbidity and mortality. Pandemics can cause economic damage through multiple channels, including short-term fiscal shocks and longer-term negative shocks to economic growth. Individual behavioral changes are a primary cause of negative shocks to economic growth during pandemics. Some pandemic mitigation measures can cause significant social and economic disruption. In countries with weak institutions and legacies of political instability, pandemics can increase political stresses and tensions.

What do we not know?

Global health specialists have issued a warning, suggesting that COVID-19 could just be a sign of a more catastrophic "Disease X Pandemic" to come, according to the Daily Mail. The head of the UK's Vaccine Taskforce, Dame Kate Bingham, expressed gratitude that COVID-19 was not more deadly and gave a dire warning that the next pandemic might kill at least 50 million people. Concerns over "Disease X Pandemic", a word that the World Health Organization created, are being raised by medical professionals. They alert us to the possibility that this next pandemic might kill 20 times as many people as the coronavirus did. Since the COVID-19 epidemic started in 2020, more than 2.5 million individuals have sadly died globally.

Inspiring Examples

First identified in Democratic Republic of the Congo in 1976, HIV/AIDS has truly proven itself as a global pandemic, killing more than 36 million people since 1981. Currently there are between 31 and 35 million people living with HIV, the vast majority of those are in Sub-Saharan Africa, where 5%of the population is infected, roughly 21 million people. As awareness has grown, new treatments have been developed that make HIV far more manageable, and many of those infected go on to lead productive lives. Between 2005 and 2012 the annual global deaths from HIV/AIDS dropped from 2.2 million to 1.6 million.
A category 2 Flu pandemic sometimes referred to as "the Hong Kong Flu," the 1968 flu pandemic was caused by the H3N2 strain of the Influenza A virus, a genetic offshoot of the H2N2 subtype. From the first reported case on July 13, 1968 in Hong Kong, it took only 17 days before outbreaks of the virus were reported in Singapore and Vietnam, and within three months had spread to The Philippines, India, Australia, Europe, and the United States.

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Antimicrobial Resistance

Is the most invisible one the strongest?

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) threatens the effective prevention and treatment of an ever-increasing range of infections caused by bacteria, parasites, viruses, and fungi. AMR occurs when bacteria, viruses, fungi, and parasites change over time and no longer respond to medicines making infections harder to treat and increasing the risk of disease spread, severe illness, and death. As a result, medicines become ineffective, and infections persist in the body. Antimicrobials - including antibiotics, antivirals, antifungals, and antiparasitics - are medicines used to prevent and treat infections in humans, animals, and plants. Microorganisms that develop antimicrobial resistance are sometimes referred to as "superbugs".

What do we know?

Antimicrobial resistance is an urgent global public health threat, killing at least 1.27 million people worldwide and associated with nearly 5 million deaths in 2019. In the U.S., more than 2.8 million antimicrobial-resistant infections occur each year. More than 35,000 people die as a result, according to CDC's 2019 Antibionic Resistance Threats Report.
When Clostridioides difficile —a bacterium that is not typically resistant but can cause deadly diarrhea and is associated with antimicrobial use—is added to these, the U.S. toll of all the threats in the report exceeds 3 million infections and 48,000 deaths.

What do we not know?

As the world still mourns the victims of the pandemic caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2, another pandemic that is expected to kill millions of people in less than a century, is already brewing. In the distant future, the global, mostly silent pandemic of antimicrobial resistance is increasingly claiming the lives of patients on hospital floors.
Unfortunately, the global health community is now gradually and progressively facing the silently emerging pandemic that could endanger some of the most significant advances in modern medicine.

Inspiring Examples

Examples of bacteria that are resistant to antibiotics include methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), penicillin-resistant Enterococcus, and multidrug -resistant Mycobacterium tubercolosis, which is resistant to two tuberculosis drugs, isoniazid and rifampicin.
MDR-TB is particularly dangerous because it can give rise to extensively drug-resistant M. tuberculosis (XDR-TB), which requires aggressive treatment using a combination of five different drugs.

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Global Climate Change

More than 1.5°C : will tomorrow be the day after tomorrow?

Climate change is impacting human lives and health in a variety of ways. It includes higher temperatures, melting Artic, extreme weather, sea level rise, and loss of biodiversity. It threatens the essential ingredients of good health - clean air, safe drinking water, food supply, and safe shelter - and has the potential to undermine decades of progress in global health.
Between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250.000 additional deaths per year from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea, and heat stress alone. The direct damage costs to health are estimated to be between US$ 2-4 billion per year by 2030.

What do we know?

In 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported over 4 million annual deaths, allegedly caused by indoor biomass fuel and coal burning for domestic heating and cooking. By 2018, over 80%of people living in urban areas are reported to have faced air quality levels above WHO limits, with 49%of large cities in high-income countries and 97%of large cities in low- and middle-income nations failing to meet guidelines. To mitigate the effects of climate change on health, well-being, migration, to reduce disease rates, and lower mortality, it is imperative to implement additional adaptation measures at a global level. International agreements such as the Paris Agreement and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals offer potential solutions and establish pathways and targets to tackle the challenges and guide common action.

What do we not know?

If this warming goes on unchecked, we leave ourselves open to severe risks. Scientists predict that it is highly likely that the rainfall patterns we all need for clean, fresh water will change, drying up in some places while causing floods in others. There is also significant evidence that, as a result of climate change, wildfires will worsen, destroying lives and property; that sea levels will rise, flooding many large cities; that hurricanes will become stronger; that the oceans will grow more acidic and hold less oxygen, threatening sea life and the people who rely on it for food; and that many people around the world would need to move to escape floods, famines or droughts, particularly in the poorest countries with the least capacity to adapt to a changing climate. Will it be possible to live in the future world?

Inspiring Examples

In June 2022, a triple-digit heat wave in Kansas wiped out thousands of cows. While the regenerative agricolture movement is empowering rural communities to make their lands more resilient to climate change, unfortunately, not all communities can equitably access the support services that can help them embrace these more sustainable farming tactics.
Climate change worsens air quality. It increases exposure to hazardous wildfire smoke and ozone smog triggered by warmer conditions, both of which harm our health, particularly for those with pre-existing illnesses like asthma or heart disease.

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Extreme Events

What can happen we do not imagine?

Extreme events are intense weather phenomena that usually have a high return time - taking up to several decades before an event of the same type occurs again.
However, climate change is modifying the situation: extreme events are becoming more frequent, and this requires a rethinking of how they are reported, modeled, and dealt with.

What do we know?

From 1970 to 2019 there were 22 326 disasters that met their criteria for recording. Of the 22 326 disasters, 11 072 have been attributed to weather, climate and water hazards. These disasters resulted in 2.06 million deaths and US$ 3.64 trillion in losses. Thus, over the last 50 years, 50%of all recorded disasters, 45%of related deaths and 74%of related economic losses were due to weather, climate and water hazards. The United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development call for countries to increase their resilience through the strengthening of risk reduction processes.

What do we not know?

Climate projections are simulations of Earth's climate for future decades (typically until 2100) based on assumed 'scenarios' for the concentrations of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other atmospheric constituents that affect the planet's radiative balance.
Due to climate's complex nature, climate projections are less accurate for the near future and at a localized scale. This limits the ability to predict the frequency of future extreme events.

Inspiring Examples

On 7 February 2009, Australia experienced its worst natural disaster, when bushfires near Melbourne killed more than 170 people and destroyed more than 1800 homes.
During 2020 the number of extreme weather events multiplied and according to the UN, by way of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change humankind is one of the principal culprits. Heatwaves that dry out the ground an accentuate wildfires, hurricanes and droughts, among others, are some examples.

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Environmental Degradation

Can a virtual landscape replace a real one?

Environmental degradation is a process through which the natural environment is compromised in some way (such as land degradation, water misuse, and pollution), reducing biological diversity and the general health of the environment. This process can be entirely natural in origin, or it can be accelerated or caused by human activities.
Many international organizations recognize environmental degradation as one of the major threats facing the planet since humans have only been given one Earth to work with, and if the environment becomes irreparably compromised, it could mean the end of human existence.

What do we know?

During the next 20 years, the physical effects of climate change will impact every country.The costs and challenges will disproportionately fall on the developing world, intersecting with environmental degradation to intensify risks to food, water, health, and energy security.There will be increased emphasis on mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to achieve net zero with new energy technologies and carbon dioxide removal techniques to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, as the world gets closer to exceeding 1.5°C—probably within the next 20 years—calls will increase for geoengineering research and possible deployment to cool the planet, despite possibly dire consequences.

What do we not know?

The size of the human population has grown exponentially since we discovered a way to cure some of the most common diseases.
With our population boom, we required more land, more water, more of everything.
Forests have almost disappeared because we needed to clear them to plant more crops, to give animals a place to graze, and to supply us with wood and other raw materials.
Technology and industry can be blamed too. Vehicle emissions, toxic waste, and carbon emissions - all emit toxins into our atmosphere, causing air pollution. These are all by-products of our inventions and ingenuity. This is what's causing Global Warming.
Is it possible to reduce our impact?

Inspiring Examples

Award-winning director Damon Gameau (That Sugar Film) embarks on a journey to explore what the future could look like by the year 2040 if we simply embraced the best solutions already available to us to improve our planet and shifted them rapidly into the mainstream. Structured as a visual letter to his 4-year-old daughter, Damon blends traditional documentaries with dramatized sequences and high-end visual effects to create a vision board of how these solutions could regenerate the world for future generations.

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Permafrost Melting

Could a virus be a black swan?

Permafrost is a mixture of soil, gravel, and sand bound together by ice. It is mainly in the Arctic regions, but also in other parts of Alaska, Greenland, Russia, China, and northern and eastern Europe.When permafrost forms, bacteria and viruses can get trapped inside it and survive for thousands or even millions of years. Warmer periods can trigger metabolic processes that allow these microorganisms to reactivate. In the middle of the current climate crisis, therefore, some of these pathogens, potentially capable of causing disease, can awaken as the permafrost melts. The researchers have thus nicknamed the 1%of potentially dangerous viruses "black swans", referring to a rare and unlikely event, but of enormous impact.

What do we know?

Temperatures are warming at three times the global average in the Arctic largely as a result of feedback loops from melting ice and snow cover. This has caused mass loss from ice sheets and glaciers as well as reductions in sea ice extent and thickness.
Globally, the sea level has risen an average of 8 to 9 inches since the late 19th century; estimates of rise in the next 20 years range from another 3 to 14 inches, which would create additional problems for low lying coastal cities and islands.
On land, thawing permafrost is likely to cause increasing damage to infrastructure, including transportation systems, pipelines, and power plants.

What do we not know?

There's a huge amount of carbon stored in permafrost — an estimated 1,500 gigatons, or twice as much as the atmosphere contains. This carbon is the remnant of plants and other organic matter that didn't fully decompose in the frozen soils over thousands of years. The oldest known permafrost is around 700,000 years old.
As permafrost thaws, bacteria can break down that organic matter, releasing that carbon into the atmosphere as the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide or methane. Once in the atmosphere, these greenhouse gases further warm the planet, creating a positive feedback loop that thaws more permafrost.
What would happen if these bacteria were released?

Inspiring Examples

In August 2016, in the Siberian tundra, a 12-year-old boy died and dozens of people were hospitalized due to an outbreak of anthrax released by the thawing of a layer of permafrost on which a reindeer carcass was lying. Scientists have found microbes that are over 400,000 years old in permafrost, so many of the viruses that have plagued humanity throughout its history — such as bubonic plague and smallpox — are believed to lie dormant in this frozen stratum.
In Russia, where more than 60 %of the land is permafrost, this problem is particularly acute and Yakutsk, the largest city built on permafrost, already suffers from it.

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Pollution

Will also the garbage become virtual?

Pollution is the introduction of harmful materials into the environment.These harmful materials are called pollutants. Pollutants can be natural, such as volcanic ash, others can be created by human activity, such as trash or runoff produced by factories. Pollutants damage the quality of air, water, and land.
Many things that are useful to people produce pollution. Pollution is a global problem. Although urban areas are usually more polluted than the countryside, pollution can spread to remote places where no people live. For example, pesticides and other chemicals have been found in the Antarctic ice sheet. In the middle of the northern Pacific Ocean, a huge collection of microscopic plastic particles forms what is known as the Pacific Garbage Patch.

What do we know?

Although air and water pollution have decreased in many high-income countries since a peak in the 20th century, they continue to grow globally as the number of middle-income countries has increased; for instance, 80 percent of industrial and municipal wastewaters are discharged untreated into waterways.
Like other environmental factors, air pollution and climate change influence each other through complex interactions in the atmosphere. Climate change will lead to more stagnation events—stationary domes of hot air that can cause air pollutants to get trapped and persist in the lower atmosphere—and will worsen air quality by increasing the frequency of wildfires.

What do we not know?

By 2050, outdoor air pollution particulate matter and ground-level ozone is projected to become the top cause of environmentally related deaths worldwide. A study showed that with no change in emissions by 2050, 1,126,000 premature mortalities are expected each year due to ozone. How can we reduce the huge amount of waste?

Inspiring Examples

Air pollution is a silent killer. It's responsible for millions of deaths each year, and the number is only increasing as industrialization and urbanization continue to rise. What's even more alarming is that air pollution doesn't just cause respiratory problems. It's been linked to an array of other diseases, some of which are life-threatening. Here is a list of 10 diseases caused by air pollution: cardiovascular diseases, cancer, neurological disorders, gastrointestinal disorders, kidney diseases, liver diseases, skin diseases, asthma, bronchitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

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Food Waste

How can you reduce your food waste?

A third of the food intended for human consumption - around 1.3 billion tons - is wasted or lost. Enough to feed 3 billion people. Food waste and loss account for a third of greenhouse gas emissions annually; if it were a country, it would be the third highest emitter of greenhouse gases, behind China and the US. Food waste and loss occur at different stages in developing and developed countries; in the former, 40%of food waste occurs at the post-harvest and processing levels, while in the latter, 40%occurs at the retail and consumer levels. At the retail level, a shocking amount of food is wasted because of aesthetic reasons; in the US, more than 50%of all discarded produce because it is deemed to be "too ugly" to be sold to consumers - this amounts to about 60 million tons of fruits and vegetables.

What do we know?

The best way to reduce waste is to prevent it. Approximately half of total food waste in the industrialized world occurs at the consumption stage. This suggests that a large impact can be made through initiatives targeted at consumers.
Awareness campaigns can help consumers to reduce overbuying, preserve food longer, recycle food scraps and not waste perfectly edible food.
Various supermarkets worldwide try to address this last issue by selling 'ugly' produce as a new food category. Another example are initiatives that connect consumers to share surplus food rather than letting it go to waste.

What do we not know?

The World Bank estimates global waste will grow by 70 percent by 2050 as urbanization and populations rise, requiring better collecting, and recycling of trash, as well as expertise clean-up efforts from public and private sectors.
Is it possible to reorganize the world distribution of food?

Inspiring Examples

Wasted food has far-reaching effects, both nationally and globally. In the U.S., up to 40%of all food produced goes uneaten, and about 95%of discarded food ends up in landfills. It is the largest component of municipal solid waste at 21%. In 2014, more than 38 million tons of food waste was generated, with only 5%diverted from landfills and incinerators for composting. Typically, this waste can be split into four categories: by-product food waste, expired products, leftovers, bakery and packaged food waste.

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Circular Economy

Reduce, reuse, recycle... Can you repeat?

A circular approach reduces the lifecycle impacts of products, curbs climate emissions, and minimizes the use of harmful products and/or components.
It is a model of production and consumption that strives to maintain the usability of existing materials and manufactured products as long as possible through sharing, leasing, reusing, repairing, and refurbishing.

What do we know?

Introducing a circular healthcare system can significantly increase the sector's ability to adapt and persist over time. By prioritizing sustainable supply chains and prolonging the use of healthcare products, the system can effectively reduce waste production and hazardous emissions at every stage of the product lifecycle. Additionally, this approach guarantees proper implementation of the waste hierarchy. Phasing out harmful chemicals, such as endocrine disruptors, carcinogens, mutagens, and substances toxic to reproduction, is a crucial component of achieving a circular healthcare system. These chemicals are widely present in healthcare products, including disinfectants, medical devices, furniture, electronic equipment, solvents, and pharmaceuticals.

What do we not know?

Transformation of the medical device industry to a more circular economy would advance the goal of providing increasingly complex care in a low-emissions future. Barriers to circularity include perceptions regarding infection prevention, behaviors of device consumers and manufacturers, and regulatory structures that encourage the proliferation of disposable medical devices. Complementary policy- and market-driven solutions are needed to encourage systemic transformation.
Where to begin this transformation?

Inspiring Examples

In the light of the COP27 Climate Change Conference, the concept of the circular economy has come to the fore with promotion of reuse and recycling of appliances and materials from electronics to clothes. This concept has not been widely taken up by healthcare systems.

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Biodiversity Loss

Only humans in the future?

Biodiversity is all the different kinds of life you will find in one area - the variety of animals, plants, fungi, and even microorganisms like bacteria that make up our natural world. Each of these species and organisms work together in ecosystems, like an intricate web, to maintain balance and support life. Three-quarters of the land-based environment and roughly 66%of the ocean environment have been significantly altered.
More than a third of the world's land surface and nearly 75%of freshwater resources are now devoted to crop or livestock production. Climate change worsens the impact of other stressors on nature and our well-being. Humans have overfished the oceans, cleared forests, polluted our water sources, and created a climate crisis. These actions are impacting biodiversity around the world.

What do we know?

The term "biodiversity" is a contraction of "biological diversity" or "biotic diversity". These terms all refer to the idea of living variation, from genes and traits to species, and to ecosystems. The popular contraction "biodiversity" came about in the mid-1980s, heralded by a symposium in 1986 and an influential follow-up book, Biodiversity (Wilson 1988). These events often are interpreted as the beginning of the biodiversity story, but this mid-1980s activity was both a nod to important past work and a launching of something quite new, in ways not fully anticipated. The new term "biodiversity" energized some fundamental ideas developed over the previous decade (or longer). Precursor terms like "biotic diversity" helped communicate why we should be concerned about the loss of variety, arising from the species extinction crisis (later, the "biodiversity crisis").

What do we not know?

Everywhere we look, nature is in crisis. And often, people are to blame. In taking over natural habitats, polluting pristine environments, and fueling climate change, humans have unleashed what scientists consider a sixth mass extinction event - with some 1 million species on the brink.
The most diverse group of organisms on the planet is in trouble, with recent research suggesting insect populations are declining at an unprecedented rate.
How can this extinction be stopped?

Inspiring Examples

Indigenous people are inextricably linked to their natural environment. From medicinal plants to staple crops, like cassava, the land they inhabit sustains their food systems as well as their ways of life. But they also sustain the world's biodiversity. Eighty percent of the planet's remaining biodiversity is in indigenous peoples' lands.
Urban biodiversity is the variety and abundance of life in a city. It is most commonly and simply measured in terms of ecosystem types and extents (e.g., lakes, grasslands, wetlands, and forests) and in terms of the types and abundances of plant and animal species within them.